The women of the FARDC

The New York Times recently published a remarkable photo essay on Sgt. Madot Dagbinza, who was one of only about 3000 women in the 150,000-strong FARDC before she died in an ambush in 2014.  Absolutely worth a read, along with Maria Eriksson Baaz & Maria Stern’s article on the experiences of female FARDC soldiers.

fardc

The NYT piece is also notable for moving past simplistic depictions of the FARDC as an incompetent force that does nothing but rape and steal.  There are still many units who abuse civilians, but it isn’t uniform – others are better trained and better disciplined.  Christoph Vogel consulted with the NYT journalists on this aspect of the story, and has written a very good summary of the FARDC as a “chameleon army.”  Maria Eriksson Baaz’s other work on this subject is also critical reading, such as this paper with Maria Stern on soldiers’ perceptions of violence, and this paper with Judith Verweijen on how the military sometimes solves disputes between civilians in places where civilian courts are inaccessible.

Reevaluating large land deals in Ghana

Festus Boamah recently had an interesting piece at Democracy in Africa on “land grabbing” for large-scale biofuel production in Ghana.  He makes the valuable point that while there are poor farmers who are losing their land, the fault for this lies not only with the (mostly European and North American) companies which buy the land, but also with the chiefs who have the legal right to reallocate it:

Whereas Ghanaian governments used to negotiation the allocation of large land areas in the early post-independence era, Ghanaian chiefs have now taken on this role: an indication of the state’s waning authority over land. …

A recent paper published in Review of African Political Economy shows that the representation of biofuel investors as ‘land grabbers’ obscures the fact that land deals have been utilized by chiefs to re-establish their authority over stool land (i.e. land areas under the control of chiefs), formalizing the boundaries of stool land―which lack formal demarcations―and creating economic opportunities for village residents in their respective communities. Chiefs’ quests to formalize land boundaries was premised on the claim that migrant farmers often evade land rent payments, which threatens the authority of the institution of chieftancy…

The chief’s power to label certain areas of land as mfofoa – marginal land – was also crucial. Through these labels, chiefs could create the impression that jatropha projects were ‘pro poor’, and would work to the benefit of local citizens in biofuel project areas. Such maneuvers hide the damage done to the land use rights of many local citizens, and the value of land that could provide local households with goods such as oil palm fruits, mango fruits and firewood, forming an important part of the local agricultural production cycle.

File this in the broad category of research which points out that power disparities between rich and poor states are real, but goes on to challenge the assumption that this strips people in poor countries of any agency.

Visualizing aid flows to Africa

The World Bank recently announced an updated version of its global project map which includes its complete portfolio of projects for the first time.  Of course I had to check out the Africa section.  I definitely didn’t expect Nigeria to be the single biggest recipient of Bank aid, given that it’s currently the largest economy south of the Sahara.  Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania and Mozambique round out the top five.

World Bank - Africa

The AFDB also publishes geocoded data on its projects, along with an interactive map. It’s not quite as attractive as the Bank’s, but does give a more precise breakdown of project locations.  With the exception of South Africa and Somalia, projects appear to basically be distributed in accordance with population density (only logical, of course).

AFDB Africa

Finally, AidData also publishes geocoded datasets and has a useful maps portal, with both interactive and static maps.  The visualization is a bit less intuitive when the interactive map is zoomed out to cover the whole continent – note that the bubble for 1606 projects in Mozambique is the same size as that for 161 projects in South Africa – but ultimately this is the single best source of data on aid flows, as it incorporates the WB and AFDB data as well as data from other donors when available.

aid data africa

What’s the best way to pay people not to rebel?

Saumitra Jha recently gave a fascinating lecture at Berkeley’s comparative colloquium in which he discussed some of his current work on designing financial instruments that can promote political stability. He drew extensively on the case of Japan in the late 1800s, where the government granted bonds to ex-samurai who were opposed to its modernizing reforms, then encouraged the bondholders to invest in the national banking system.  This gave a potentially militant group a significant stake in political stability and financial modernization.  Jha’s description of this process is worth quoting at length:

The government created an innovative, ethnically-delimited asset – the bonds given to samurai — even while eliminating the privileges and obligations that had made this ethnic group distinct. It then took the ex-samurai, one [group] that was the most likely to engage in violence and enhance political risk, and gave them incentives to become local bankowners – a group with arguably the greatest incentives to avoid engaging in violent actions that would raise the political risk of their investments in local ventures (often rice and silk). By aligning the samurai’s interests against political risk, these financial innovations aligned their interests with not only the merchants who were their fellow merchant share-holders but society at large. Since all could benefit, and in fact the samurai had explicit stakes, as bankers, in the nation’s future, they also meant that the samurai could give up their arms and credibly share the gains that modernisation and reduced political risk provided.

This process also produced a truly phenomenal photo of samurai-turned-banker Eiichi Shibusawa, who’s known as the father of Japanese capitalism for his role in founding the Tokyo Stock Exchange and a number of other publicly held companies.

Eiichi_Shibusawa_transformationFrom Wikipedia

What I find fascinating here is the ways in which this process is both similar to and different from current debates about post-conflict power-sharing in Africa.  The idea behind consociationalism is that placing representatives of all contesting groups in power ought to give them a common interest in maintaining the stability of the state.  This appears to have worked out relatively well in Burundi for the last ten years.  Lemarchand is explicit about Bujumbura’s focus on maintaining interethnic stability even at the cost of good governance: “[the administration is] a top-heavy political machinery whose sole purpose is to provide as many jobs as are needed to meet the requirements of political stability.  The government is not meant to govern; its purpose is to offer an attractive alternative to rebellion” (2009, p. 149).  In a sense, then, this is simply a less efficient means of accomplishing what the samurai bonds did in Japan.

However, institutionalized power-sharing has often failed in Africa as well.  The prime case here is obviously the DRC, where the 2002 power-sharing accords got most – but not all – of the major rebel groups durably off the battlefield.  The Nkunda- and Ntaganda-centric set of groups which continually rebelled in the east were largely spurred on by Rwanda, but also presumably believed that they might get a better deal out of some future peace agreement.  Would a different benefit structure for ex-rebels – shares in banks as opposed to positions in the government – have led to a different outcome?  The Congolese central bank has been issuing bonds for several years now, and the banking sector is badly underdeveloped, so promoting investment (and of course concomitant regulatory mechanisms) there might indeed benefit everyone.  If readers have other examples of the strategic use of financial instruments to promote political stability, I’d love to hear about them.

Free resources for studying conflict & governance

The question of whether it’s ethical to charge US$40 for access to a single article in an academic journal is a heated one in Northern academia these days.  I don’t particularly think it is, and it seems that the academic community is slowly taking some steps towards making more journal articles freely available online, but in the meantime there’s a lot of interesting content locked behind paywalls.  In that spirit, here are some of the free resources I’ve found over the years related to the study of conflict and governance in low-income countries.

  • For two days only, beginning February 17, Africa Intelligence is offering free access to more than 100,000 articles on its site.  (Thanks to Ben Radley for the tip about this.)
  • Stability is the gold standard for open-access journals in this field.  All the content is free, peer-reviewed, and generally high quality.  Scott Ross has also pointed me to Cultural Anthropology, another great open-access source.
  • If you’re not already using Google Scholar for your research, you should be.  One particularly nice feature of this service is that it includes links to free versions of articles when they’re available.  Look at the link to the right of the title where it says [PDF].
  • In the US, many scholars upload either draft or finished versions of their papers to SSRN, where they’re often available to download for free.  Working papers on development economics can also be found at BREAD.
  • A lot of great content on conflict and governance is published by think tanks, which often post their discussion papers online for free.  Check out the list of think tanks in the sidebar of this blog to get started.
  • If you’re willing to pay for specialized content, but can’t afford much of it, you might start with the Annual Review of Political Science, which had a good recent edition on civil war.   The Annual Review journals cover every major academic discipline, and provide concise summaries of current research on some of the biggest questions in each field.  It’s a great way to start exploring a new field, and catch up on the latest questions and trends in research.
  • Finally, if you really need a specific article and can’t find a free version anywhere, it never hurts to email the authors directly to ask.  Alternatively, ask a friend at a university if they can download a copy for you.  If you live close to a public university, you may also be able to request temporary access to their library.  (Public institutions seem more likely to offer this since they presumably have some obligations to residents of the state more broadly, even if they’re not enrolled.  It’s been my experience that private universities often won’t let members of the public use their libraries.)

What other open-source resources do you use?

Land disputes and the limits of off-the-shelf data in the DRC

Recently I’ve been tossing around the idea of writing a paper on subnational variation in land disputes in the DRC (on the basis of a suggestion from the excellent Leo Arriola).  There’s obviously been a great deal written about how tensions over land in eastern DRC have contributed to the civil war there, but it’s surprisingly hard to find much recent work on land disputes or land tenure regimes in the rest of the country.  As Cathy Boone points out, disagreements over land are ubiquitous in rural Africa, but most of them stay at the level of the community and don’t scale up into organized rebellion against the government.  What might patterns of land disputes look like outside of eastern DRC?

As a first cut at this question, I searched the SCAD and ACLED datasets for any observations of protests, riots or battles that were explicitly connected to land.  (For instance, ACLED has an observation from 6 August 2011 which notes, “Lendu Communal Militia attacked the nearby village of Kpachu following a land dispute.”  This is the red dot in Orientale Province.)  This produced 41 unique observations from 1993 – 2013.  A good number of them are in the east, as one might have expected, but there’s also an interesting cluster around Mbuji-Mayi and a handful in Equateur Province as well.

DRC_land_disputes

I’d hoped to study the conflicts outside of the east in greater depth, but when I looked at the underlying data again, I had to pause.  It turns out that the data is really uneven in its geographic and temporal coverage.  SCAD covers the period from 1990 – 2013, sources its data from LexisNexis (which in turn sources largely from the AP and AFP), and finds 16 land disputes turned violent between 1993 and 2010.  ACLED covers the period from 1997 – 2013, relies on a wider range of data sources (including local newspapers and NGO reports), and finds 25 violent land disputes – but only between 2011 and 2013.  There’s no overlap in their observations, which makes me wonder if either of them individually, or both together, are really reliable sources for data on this particular question.

There might be two things at play here.  First, the two datasets might actually have observed similar events during the 1997 – 2013 period that they both cover, but included different levels of detail about the motivation for a particular dispute, meaning that one of them shows up in a search for “land” and the other doesn’t.  (This could be evaluated by identifying observations with approximately the same dates and locations and comparing the notes on their motivations, which I haven’t done yet.)  Second, the underlying data sources might matter a great deal, and the two datasets might not be observing the same things at all.  In SCAD’s case, I wonder why the large cluster of conflicts that ACLED finds around Mbuji-Mayi from 2011 – 2013 didn’t show up in any of their news reports; in ACLED’s, I wonder why they only began identifying any conflicts as land-related after 2010.  I don’t question the validity of the observations they did include, but the degree to which each dataset appears to be either missing data or coding it in conflicting ways seems to be significant.

I wanted to share this here not to snipe at SCAD and ACLED – which are providing a huge service in collecting all of this data and making it freely available to anyone who’d like to use it – but to emphasize the importance of ground-truthing your data, even when it’s from a well-known dataset.  As Jay Ufelder has written about at length, translating complex political events such as battles and protests into an easily comparable quantitative format is a huge challenge, and the process by which events are chosen and coded for inclusion isn’t always uniform.  As for me, I’m glad I got to explore this data, but out of concern for its representativeness I think I’m going back to the drawing board for the paper.

Post-conflict recovery isn’t uniform

The Overseas Development Institute  recently released a new report on post-conflict recovery in Liberia.  They suggest that the country is making slow but steady steps towards improved security.  But check out the spatial variation in people’s perceptions of safety (from this graphic):

safety

Your daily reminder that countries are probably the wrong unit of analysis for thinking about the impact of civil war; where one lives within a country also matters a great deal.