Typologies of political dispute

March 20th, 2012 § 4 Comments

Here’s an idea I’ve been brainstorming recently, and which I’m tossing in a rather raw form out into the world: has anyone written the definitive typology of different types of political disputes?  Not that I plan to write it; I’d just like to know if it’s out there!

Consider the ways in which citizens may express opposition to government policy.  This could run the spectrum from peaceful protest to violent rebellion on the civilian disputant side, and from active accommodation to a violent military campaign on the state side.  Naturally, such disputes are relational and contingent – the actions taken by either party provoke a reaction of some type by the other party, which itself will condition future actions by the first party.

I was thinking of this because most of the work I’ve seen on African politics in the 1990s seems to focus rather narrowly on either pro-democratic protest or civil war, without considering them as examples of political dispute on different ends of the same spectrum.  Some of this literature is discussed in my recent post on Robert Bates’ latest book.  As I noted in that post, the same combination of factors (economic stagnation + political unrest) led to fairly peaceful democratic change in some countries and civil war in others.

I’m not asking here about why some countries consolidated democracy and others reverted to authoritarianism or fell into conflict; the income hypothesis seems to predict democratic consolidation pretty well.  And I’m not asking about why some countries had civil wars at all and others didn’t; there’s a lot of work out there on the structural determinants of civil war, notably Collier & Hoeffler.  But I do think it’s interesting that, facing similar sets of political disputes around the same time (the 1980s and early 1990s), some countries followed contingent paths that led to relatively peaceful political change, whilst others drifted towards the use of violence.

As a first take at an organizing structure for this thought, here’s a graph representing the spectrum of citizen & government positions during a political dispute.  (Click to enlarge it.)  It clearly still needs some work.  Does anyone find this useful?  Am I just replicating someone else’s work without knowing it?  (It looks like Regina Bateson at Yale has a working paper addressing a similar topic, and there’s definitely Rebel Rulers, but I haven’t seen much else about the relational, contingent nature of political conflict.)  Would love to hear your thoughts, oh readers!

Book review: When Things Fell Apart

February 22nd, 2012 § 3 Comments

I went into Robert Bates’ recent book When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa with high expectations.  His 1982 work Markets and States in Tropical Africa: The Political Basis of Agricultural Policies remains one of the best pieces of African political analysis I’ve ever read, displaying an admirable willingness to take African domestic politics seriously, and thereby producing a insightful overview at the process of agricultural policy-making.  (I must confess here that I thought this sounded like a resoundingly dull topic until I read the book, at which point I realized that Bates had captured many of the fundamental dynamics of African politics in the post-colonial era.)  At any rate, I fully expected the same insight from When Things Fell Apart – and was disappointed to put it down feeling like I had learned little of value.  The book is a decent primer on African politics in the 1980s and 1990s for the reader who’s unfamiliar with the topic, but it doesn’t even define “state failure” clearly, let alone provide an adequate metric for determining why some African states failed and others didn’t.  One could be excused for coming away with the conclusion that the entire continent imploded in the 1990s.  Such an important topic deserves a more clearly-written book (as other reviewers seem to agree).

A bit of background: my primer on African politics in the 1980s and 1990s was Michael Bratton & Nicholas van der Walle’s 1997 book Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective (which I read for a course with the excellent Peter Lewis).  Democratic Experiments isn’t what I’d call compulsively readable, but it does draw a clear picture of the generalized path that many African countries followed from authoritarianism to democratization.  Generally speaking, the profound economic crisis of the 1980s unsettled many African autocrats’ grips on power, and by the end of the decade protests over economic stagnation and single-party rule were common.  Many leaders reluctantly switched to multiparty democracy under such pressure, whilst others were able to repress domestic dissent but were still pushed towards democracy by international donors.  Of course, some states avoided democratization entirely, as in Sudan with its civil war, Somalia with its total collapse, and Zaire with Mobutu’s preternatural skill at clinging to power.

So, in short: prolonged economic stagnation weakens leaders’ holds on power and provokes political unrest, which might lead to democracy (Ghana), civil war (Somalia), or both in succession (Rwanda & Burundi).  I was really hoping that Bates’ book would start from this point and investigate the determinants of why some nations collapsed and others weathered this period intact.  Instead, Bates takes the same stylized elements as Bratton & van der Walle (economic crisis + resultant instability in the political system), adds a structural assumption about politicians’ heightened discount rates in times of crisis, and comes up with a recipe for violent political infighting over access to resources and resultant state collapse.  This is the flip side of the processes of democratization explored in Democratic Experiments, and it’s a plausible analysis for many of the states that did in fact fall into civil conflict.

However, Bates never actually defines “state failure,” nor identifies the set of African states or even the specific time periods to which this analysis applies. His working definition appears to mean “civil war during the 1990s,” based on statements like the opening sentence of his conclusion, which discusses Liberia and Somalia.  It’s an odd oversight for a political scientist, given that the Liberian civil war is arguably a different type of “state failure” than the complete collapse of the central government in Somalia.  (Rwanda and the DRC are also great examples: both were sites of great violence in the 1990s, but today Rwanda has one of the strongest governments in Africa, whilst the Congolese government doesn’t even control all of its own territory.)  For that matter, evidence for the book’s arguments is culled from across the continent, including anecdotes from states such as Ghana and Zambia (which have never had civil wars) alongside the obvious choices of war-torn Burundi and DRC.  Bates’ reasonable analysis of the risk factors for state collapse is greatly weakened by this inability to apply his hypotheses to specific African states.

How large is Africa?

January 30th, 2012 § 5 Comments

I seem to be on a roll with the geographic posts these days – but this map, brought to my attention by Tom of A View From the Cave, was too cool not to share!  Via Information is Beautiful.

Know your African countries

January 27th, 2012 § 8 Comments

I’ve been fiddling with this idea for a poster project for a while, and here are some early results:

What do you think?

Travel Advice for the Developing World: Health

September 12th, 2011 § 1 Comment

Last but not least in the travel advice series: staying healthy.

You almost certainly do not need to bring:

  • An obsessive fear of illness.  Disease-related morbidity is certainly higher in the developing world than in the developed, but, to put it bluntly, one’s chances of falling ill are connected to one’s socioeconomic status in ways that favor the  foreign traveler.  Having the capacity to purchase vaccines, malaria prophylaxis, and clean drinking water lessens one’s risk of illness considerably.  (Consider it an object lesson in public health.)

Do consider bringing:

  • Sunblock (which you should be wearing every day anyway!).  I like Lubriderm’s SPF 15 moisturizer, which is unscented and non-greasy.
  • Hand sanitizer.  Useful before meals or after bathroom trips when soap and running water aren’t available.
  • DEET-free bug spray.  DEET is effective, but it’s inconvenient to wash it off before bed every night, and isn’t recommended for use with small children.  I’ve been happy with Repel’s lemon eucalyptus insect spray.
  • Anti-malarial medication.  Malarone and doxycycline are commonly available in the US.  Mefloquine is no longer available by its brand name, Lariam, but is still sold as a generic.  All of them have a non-negligible prevalence of side effects (with mefloquine being known for being hallucinogenic, doxy for causing sun sensitivity, and Malarone for milder effects), so discuss the choice with your doctor.  It is sometimes possible to purchase brand-name anti-malarials like Malarone in developing countries, but it’s not always available and is sometimes counterfeit, so it’s preferable to get them before departure.
  • Extra dosages of prescription medications, and copies of prescriptions.
  • A small first-aid kit.  You don’t need to bring an entire field survival kit, but having access to antiseptic cream, bandages, tweezers and pain relievers is convenient.  Consider bringing supplies for treating small burns, allergic reactions, and insect bites as well.
  • Anti-nausea and anti-diarrhea medication.  If your body truly wants to get rid of something it’s eaten, I usually think it’s wiser to let it do so, but if this conflicts with a 14-hour bus ride then Pepto-Bismol can be a godsend.  (If you’re worried about dehydration, it’s simple enough to make your own ORS from sugar & salt.)
  • Iodine tablets for water purification.  It’s preferable to boil water, use a ceramic filter, or drink bottled water.  However, if you find yourself in a situation where none of the above are feasible, iodine can be useful.
  • Trail mix.  Especially useful for long bus rides.  Street food is available virtually everywhere and is often quite good, but in a pinch it can be nice to have a healthy bag of dried fruit & nuts available.

Do consider buying:

  • The rabies vaccine.  Rabies isn’t a huge problem in most places, but it does exist almost everywhere, and is nearly 100% fatal if you contract it and are unable to get treatment.  Getting the prophylactic vaccine before departure will buy you several extra days to get help if you’re bitten by an animal.
  • Deworming pills at a local pharmacy.  Really only necessary if you’ve been traveling for more than three months.  Most pharmacies will have them.

Travel Advice for the Developing World: Logistics

September 9th, 2011 § Leave a Comment

Today in travel advice: sundry logistics of travel.

You almost certainly don’t need to bring:

  • Traveller’s cheques.  With the advent of ATMs these are rarely used any more.

Do consider bringing:

  • Your ATM card.  In larger cities, ATMs are everywhere.  Ask your bank if it has international partners in your destination country which will waive out-of-network ATM fees.  You should also be sure to alert your bank to your upcoming travels, as unexplained transactions occurring in foreign countries are often otherwise tagged as fraud.
  • Dollar bills printed later than 2005 to use as forex when ATMs aren’t available.  This isn’t a problem everywhere, but when I was in Rwanda, a recent counterfeiting scare had moved banks to reject any dollars issued before 2005.
  • The same credit card used to purchase your plane tickets.  Airlines will occasionally insist that the purchasing card be presented during check-in, or used to cover other charges.  A colleague of mine once had to purchase a duplicate ticket on a separate card after forgetting the card used for her original purchase (on South African Airways).
  • Printed copies of your itinerary, just in case there’s a need for additional confirmation.
  • Photocopies of your passport, driver’s license, vaccination records, health insurance, and credit/debit cards.  You’ll need them if the originals get stolen.
  • A flashlight.  Vital for places with frequent power outages.  Many locally-available mobile phones now come equipped with flashlights.
  • Extra bedsheets.  Extremely useful for everything from stays in under-furnished hotels (bedsheets, towels, a curtain for that window that looks directly into the shower) to long bus rides (pillows, blankets) to visits to the pool/lake/river (assuming you’ve already checked that it’s free of schisto).
  • A bike helmet and cable lock, if you expect to be riding.  Bikes can often be purchased cheaply, but helmets and locks are rare commodities.

Do consider buying:

  • Evacuation insuranceInternationalSOS, Medex, and Travel Guard all offer international medical and evacuation services.  It’s relatively cheap for short trips (I paid about US$40 for my recent three-week stay in Ghana from InternationalSOS), but do read the fine print carefully – there have been occasions where these companies have restricted their evacuation services to the capital city without informing their customers clearly.
  • An international driver’s permit.  If you plan on renting or purchasing a car or motorcycle this will be necessary.  AAA offers them for US residents, and there seems to be an international application as well.

Travel Advice for the Developing World: Electronics

September 5th, 2011 § 1 Comment

Today in travel advice: the care and feeding of electronics.

You almost certainly don’t need to bring:

  • A mobile phone equipped for international data roaming.  This is just about the most ruinously expensive thing a traveler can do, and with the proliferation of domestic data networks (and internet cafes) in many developing countries there’s no reason to use international data.  The BlackBerry and iPhone support sites have information about turning off data roaming.
  • A voltage converter.  Generally speaking, any piece of electronic equipment that’s capable of computing of some sort (from a phone to a camera to a laptop) will have a voltage converter build into its charger.  However, if you’re using something simple like a hair dryer, a converter will be in order.
  • Your new $1200 MacBook Pro (and yes, it is ridiculous that Apple has suckered so many of us into buying $1200 laptops).  Dust, rain, and power surges are not your computer’s allies.  If you strongly feel that you need access to a personal computer on your trip, this might be the time to bring an old laptop back into action if you’ve still got it around -  or to consider purchasing a cheap used netbook.  If your expensive laptop is your only option, make sure that everything is backed up and that your warranty is still valid.

Do consider bringing:

  • A universal outlet adaptor.  They’re cheap, they last forever, and they can be unexpectedly useful in regions with a lot of secondhand electronics, where an imported piece of equipment may have a plug that doesn’t fit the sockets used in the country.
  • Water-resistant cases for your electronics.  Very useful if you get caught in a downpour or something spills in your bag.  BuiltNY and InCase both make attractive neoprene cases.
  • Headphones.  Great for maintaining at least a semblance of privacy whilst Skyping in crowded internet cafes.
  • A surge protector.  Power supplies can fluctuate unevenly, and plugging your electronics directly into a wall socket can be disastrous if there’s a large surge.
  • Extra batteries and chargers.  Spare batteries will serve you well if you need to work through a blackout (or through a long flight).  If you wind up losing your charger or seeing it fried by a power surge because you failed to obey the cardinal rule of the surge protector, it’s good to have a backup.
  • A universal USB modem.  This is a clever little device that will allow you to get online virtually anywhere in the world with a cellular data network.  One need only acquire a SIM card with data service on it and insert it into the USB modem to get online.  The Huawei brand seems to be popular.  Worth considering if you travel frequently and need constant internet access.

Do consider buying upon arrival:

  • A cheap mobile phone and local SIM.  In many African countries, the cheapest Nokia phones run about US$25. Prepaid SIMs can often be purchased, with no formal contract, for less than US$1.  International call rates to North America & Europe are frequently comparable to Skype’s rate of US$0.30 per minute for calls to landlines (cf. MTN’s tariff plan for Ghana).  That said, countries vary broadly in their approach to mobile regulation, and I’ve heard that purchasing a phone in India or some Latin American countries is more difficult than this.

Travel Advice for the Developing World: Accessories

September 2nd, 2011 § 4 Comments

Today in travel advice, we present: (un)necessary accessories!

You almost certainly do not need to bring:

  • A travel vest with a million pockets, unless you’re clear on what you’ll use them for (or don’t own any pants with pockets for some mysterious reason).  It’s unlikely that you’ll need to carry every pocket-sized item you own with you at all times.  I usually leave my small valuables/passport/cash at my hotel/house or in my shoulder bag and call it a day.
  • Nice leather shoes.  The rainy season will wreak havoc on them, even if they’re waterproofed.  (But do see the exception at the end of the apparel post.)
  • A fake wedding ring.  I know a number of young women who’ve tried this approach to fending off men whose standards of courtship were more, well, direct than is common in the West, and trust me, it doesn’t help.

Do consider bringing:

  • Shoes made of synthetic materials.  Life is much easier if you don’t have to worry about getting your feet wet.  Women have some good options for work-appropriate waterproof shoes, like Reef’s sandals and J. Crew’s rubber ballet flats.  I think I would be wearing Top-Siders to work if I were male, and commentators Dave & Stephen suggest Rockports for times when more formal shoes are needed.  Waterproof hiking boots are great for hiking, obviously, but rather informal for urban wear.  Cheap rubber flipflops are perfect shower shoes, but shouldn’t be worn to work.  I find wellingtons too bulky to pack easily, but if you’re traveling to an extremely remote area they may be useful for grappling with roads that have dissolved into mud.
  • An umbrella and a waterproof bag.  I’ve been satisfied with the waterproof lining on my Herve Chapelier shoulder bag.  A waterproof messenger bag or backpack is ideal if you expect to be commuting by bicycle or motorcycle.
  • Sunglasses, and possibly a hat.  The latter is a question of personal preference – useful if you burn easily, but not necessary otherwise.  I love this sunhat for women (also from J. Crew).

  • A passport pouch.  As mentioned above, I don’t worry too much about carrying my passport and money around in my shoulder bag.  Theft is a widely prevalent but relatively low risk in many places, be it from a hotel room or on the street, and after taking basic precautions (such as using hotel safes, keeping my bag zipped and held firmly in front of me, and not walking around alone at night), I’ve never felt threatened enough to guard my valuables in this way.  However, visitors to more insecure areas might consider doing so.  In a pinch, women can also tuck items into the side of their bras under the arms, where they’ll lie flat against the rib cage.

Travel Advice for the Developing World: Apparel

August 29th, 2011 § 3 Comments

Having gotten a few requests for information on this subject of late, I thought I’d share my list of tips for traveling in the developing world.  This draws upon my experience in Africa, so I can’t speak to its applicability for other regions, but I’m guessing that many of the same principles hold.  You can see all of the posts in this series here.  First up: what (not) to wear.

You almost certainly do not need to bring:

  • A head-to-toe khaki ensemble made of rip-stop, permethrin-treated, UV-blocking fabric.  Unless you will be spending weeks at a time in the jungle/the desert, this type of outfit simply isn’t necessary.  There are cheaper, easier, and more fashionable ways of protecting yourself from insect bites and sunburn (which I’ll discuss later in this series).
  • Your rattiest clothing.  Dressing neatly is a point of pride in many places, and it’s rather rude to show up looking like you’ve forgotten to do your laundry in months.
  • Shorts or skirts that hit above the knee, for men or women.  Such outfits are often considered either extremely informal (and not work-appropriate), appropriate only for children, or simply incongruent with cultural standards.  I was once told off in the DRC for wearing a miniskirt to work whilst I was in fact wearing a skirt that hit right at the top of my knees, which would have been work-appropriate in the US.  That said, people do dress less conservatively when they’re going out in larger cities, so plan accordingly if you’ll be tearing it up every night.
  • White clothing.  It’s at high risk of getting stained in the wash.
  • Anything that needs to be dry-cleaned.  Cleaners are rare outside of more affluent capitals, and your wool sweater will not benefit from being handwashed and line-dried.

Do consider bringing:

  • Loose, lightweight, business casual clothing in natural materials.  (You truly do not want to be wearing polyester at the height of the dry season heat in some countries.)  For women, I’m a fan of loose shirts and dresses belted at the waist for some definition.  Toss them over lightweight leggings or cotton pants if they’re too short to be worn by themselves.  When I’m not wearing this I usually wear a knee-length skirt and short-sleeve shirt, which I pair with a cardigan for meetings.

(Images from J. Crew)

  • Athletic clothes made of synthetic fabrics.  Long pants and longsleeved shirts are useful if you’ll be hiking in wooded areas.  Hooded raincoats are essential rainy season material.
  • Non-cotton underwear, which breathes more easily and dries more quickly than cotton.  This is a virtue when you’ve just snatched your laundry in from the rain and need to get dressed for work in an hour.
  • One set of warm clothing.  Evenings can get cool at high altitudes and high latitudes, and you may well find yourself on a bus with an overenthusiastic air conditioner for hours on end.
  • At least one formal set of day and evening clothing (which may well break the above rules).  If your work brings you into contact with high-level government officials, you’ll need something more formal than business casual.  People also dress quite well (and, as mentioned above, less conservatively) to go out in larger cities.  Consider bringing a suit, a pair of nice shoes, and a fun outfit for dancing in – and simply try to avoid getting them dirty/wet.  (And, if you’re male, note that some clubs won’t permit entrance to men wearing flipflops.)

Witchcraft on the Small Screen

August 15th, 2011 § Leave a Comment

The STC bus that I caught from Accra to Tamale yesterday was equipped with a DVD player, and we were treated to four Nollywood productions, all of which were centrally concerned with witchcraft.  I didn’t catch the title of the first one, but highlights included a man getting up in the midst of the night to swat at a moth in his room, only to have the insect turn first into a bird and then into his wife.  Egg of Life portrayed a campfire story told by an older man to a group of children, about a chief’s son who was poisoned by the witches he had inadvisedly consorted with in his youth, and the group of female warriors who were sent to find the restorative Egg of Life.  (The traditional costumes were quite lovely.)  Brotherhood of Vipers was really beautifully lit, with deeply saturated colors lending interest to this story of business rivals using witchcraft to get ahead, whilst Super Warriors was a cheesy romp about a magician who cast down his enemies by shooting lightning from the Star of David painted on his forehead.

This put me in mind of an article I recently read by Stephen Ellis and Gerrie Ter Haar.  In “Religion and Politics: Taking African Epistemologies Seriously,” they argue that many African approaches to religion* treat the material and the spirit worlds as constituting a single spectrum of reality.  They note as well that this historical mode of thought may go some way towards explaining the warm reception of charismatic Christian churches in Africa, whose messages of spiritual healing (and the prosperity gospel) have proven increasingly popular over the last decades.  In Ghana, charismatic churches such as the Lighthouse Chapel International have been growing at the expense of the mainline Protestant and Catholic churches at least since the 1970s.

Paul Gifford touches on these issues in his recent study of Ghana’s charismatic movement, which offers up some telling observations of pastors calling upon the holy spirit to counteract juju worked upon members of the congregation.  Traditional typologies of spiritual forces may thus co-exist with biblical descriptors of the same phenomena, such as demons.  It’s fascinating to see the ways in which a set of cultural practices and beliefs that were at the first utterly un-African (i.e. Christianity) have slowly adapted themselves to their local setting.

*This isn’t intended to over-generalize, however; there’s obviously a huge diversity of religous practice and belief (or unbelief, for that matter) within the continent!

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