Tensions on the rise between Rwanda and Uganda

A white metal bar with raised red letters spelling "Rwanda" on it, in front of a paved road

The Rwanda-Uganda border crossing at Cyanika, December 2014

Rwanda and Uganda are solidly into their twentieth year of tense relations, after their respective presidents Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni fell out in the late 1990s over the management of looted resources from eastern DRC during the Second Congo War.  The tension between them has entered the headlines again lately after Rwanda closed one of its major border crossings with Uganda at Gatuna.   The government has issued mixed messages about the reasons for the closure, with some officials saying that it was simply for road work, but others claiming that it was done in retaliation for harassment of Rwandan citizens in Uganda.  For its part, there are persistent but unsubstantiated rumors within Uganda that Rwandan citizens are involved in plots to overthrow Museveni.

The East African has a good overview of the regional geopolitics of the Rwanda – Uganda relationship.  As they note, this has major implications for the development of regional infrastructure.

Rwanda, a small landlocked country, is served by two major transport corridors — the Central Corridor that runs from Dar es Salaam through Tanzania’s heartland, and the Northern Corridor that runs from Mombasa through Kenya and Uganda.

About 80 per cent of Rwanda’s import cargo is handled through the Dar port, but its major exports — minerals, tea and coffee — go through Uganda to the port of Mombasa.

Oil and capital goods to Rwanda come in mainly through Dar es Salaam. It is this route that President Kagame is seen to be moving to secure, as prospects of undertaking joint infrastructure projects with Kenya and Uganda grow dimmer as relations with Kampala get icier.

Africa Update for March 2019

Here’s the latest edition of my Africa Update newsletter.  We’ve got the professional mourners of the DRC, Somalia’s unique mobile money ecosystem, the Lagos art scene, Rwanda’s first female neurosurgeon, and more.

A Ghanaian man and his young daughter, with text superimposed next to the reading "justice is what love looks like in public" - Cornel West

Thought for the day, via Òman Baako

West Africa: This was a difficult but important read about rape culture in Ghana.  In Nigeria, “men are always having transactional sex, and they are fine with it as long as they are the ones setting the terms of the transaction.” Technology is making it more difficult to rig elections by stuffing ballot boxes in Nigeria.  Sierra Leone has declared a national emergency over high rates of sexual assault of teenage girls. Survivors of the West African Ebola epidemic are complaining after it emerged that their blood samples have been shipped worldwide for research without their consent.

Central Africa: Uganda is running sting operations to catch healthcare providers who ask for bribes.  If your career is lagging in eastern Congo, you might consider becoming a professional mourner.  This is a remarkable story about how one Congolese doctor worked closely with armed groups to vaccinate people in a remote town against Ebola.  Rwanda has launched a new University of Global Health Equity to train future doctors.  Read this moving piece on Burundi’s tiny lesbian community.

Two young boys sit at wooden desks inside an ornate, palatial room

Apparently the Congolese dictator Mobutu Sese Seko’s former palace in Lisala was turned into a school at one point (via Nicolas-Patience Basabose)

East Africa: Here’s some background on the case currently being heard in Kenyan courts that could decriminalize homosexuality.  Kenya’s new educational policy will give students several more years of instruction in their local languages before switching to English, which should boost their overall literacy.  Read about the rise of rollerblading culture in Nairobi. Two Eritrean brothers are bringing solar panels to markets which big Western solar firms won’t touch. Tanzania has begun offering land titles to people in poor neighborhoods, rather than driving them away for lacking titles.  Here are the historical precedents of the current uprising in Sudan.  This is a great profile of the unique mobile money ecosystem in Somalia, where as much as 98% of all paper currency in circulation may be counterfeit.

Southern Africa: More than 900 people, most of them children, have died in a measles outbreak in Madagascar.  A hospital in Malawi has carried out its first-ever brain surgery.  Malawi’s healthcare system calls for women to get regular medical care for themselves and their children, but some are questioning whether this disconnects men from care.  South Africa has passed a law which would require disclosure of political parties’ funding sources for the first time.  Zambia just made a rare move to revert from a value-added tax (VAT) back to a sales tax, which will probably increase tax evasion.

An overhead view of a pick-up truck painted with camouflage, with several Sudanese men sitting in the back, and a very large Sudanese flag waving overhead

An artistic interpretation of Sudan’s current protests by Jaili Hajo, via Shado Magazine

Conflict: Read this critique of the NYT’s reporting on armed groups and US counterinsurgency operations in Burkina Faso.  France is carrying out airstrikes in Chad against “terrorist” groups which some say are just the government’s political opponents.  Years of attacks by armed groups have shaped Kenya’s public architecture with a focus on (often ineffective) security features.  This is a remarkable story about the Kenyan citizens who went to Somalia to fight with al-Shabaab.  Here are the roadblocks to integrating rebels into the army in South Sudan. In the Central African Republic, a high profile panel of religious leaders calls for peace but faces obstacles in convincing the public that they’re credible.

Politics + economics: African governments are increasingly likely to tax mobile money transactions, but even small taxes may drive so many users back to cash that the revenue effects are null.  Here’s a good summary of the expansion of welfare programs across Africa.  The children of immigrants in Africa face the risk of being stateless, as neither their host country nor their parents’ country of origin may recognize their citizenship.  Read about the political business cycles which make elections expensive undertakings in many African countries.

An Ethiopian woman with the bottom half of her face painted blue, wearing a red cape, in front of a blue background

Check out all of the wonderful female photographers highlighted by Sarah Waiswa on Twitter.  This photo is from Ethiopia’s Aïda Muluneh.

Women’s empowerment: Check out these books by Nigerian authors on the longlist of the 2019 Women’s Prize for Fiction.  Maria Obonyo of Uganda gave new meaning to “life-long learning” when she enrolled in primary school at the age of 80 to learn how to write.   OkayAfrica has released their list of 100 influential African women for 2019.  A protest at a Nigerian market has encouraged male vendors to stop catcalling women in order to get them to buy their products.  Meet Claire Karekezi, who is Rwanda’s first female neurosurgeon.

Arts + culture: This library inside a converted mosque in Niger is beautiful.   Nigeria’s burgeoning art scene looks amazing.  This is a wonderful piece about the place of kitenge fabric in a contemporary pan-African aesthetic.  I can’t wait to see Blitz the Ambassador’s magical realist film “The Burial of Kojo” about one family’s life in Ghana.  Bakwa Magazine is seeking submissions by March 15 for an issue about the experience of traveling while African.

An infographic about scientific research output in Africa

Facts about African research output via the Mawazo Institute

AcademiaThe 2nd African Evidence to Action Conference is being held in Accra from July 11 – 12.  Submit a manuscript to the Working Group in African Political Economy by March 27 for a meeting held in Cape Town, also on July 10 – 12.  African scholars are encouraged to apply to the Africa Research Development Group at the American Political Science Association annual meeting (due March 10; meeting from August 28 – September 1).  If you’re looking for research collaborators, check out the newly launched Network of Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa.

Africa Update for January 2019

Here’s my latest link round-up from Africa Update.  We’ve got Angolan goat delivery apps, contraception compromises in Rwanda, a deep dive on the Congolese election, postdocs for African physicists, and more.

A skyscraper with fireworks exploding behind itHappy New Year from Nairobi!  (Photo by Sarah Kimani)

West Africa: Meet the only bookseller of Guinea-Bissau.  Read about one Nigerian man’s horrifying experience in captivity in Libya as he tried to emigrate to Europe.  This all-female biker gang in Nigeria drives around the country doing health education for other women.  Here’s some useful background on the current protests in Togo.  Listen to this podcast on statelessness in West Africa from the Center for Democratic Development in Ghana. Across West Africa, women are increasingly likely to ask for divorces if their marriages aren’t going well.

Central Africa: In Rwanda, where the Catholic Church runs many hospitals, the government has come to a compromise with them about birth control by providing access to contraception in tiny clinics right outside the hospitals.  Tim Longman recommends this profile of Rwanda’s Kagame (in French) as balanced and insightful.  Burundi has officially moved its capital from Bujumbura to the small city of Gitega.  North Korean soldiers are training elite army forces in Uganda.  Secondary schools in Uganda are also piloting new Mandarin language classes before rolling them out nationwide.  In the Central African Republic, carrying out surveys is a dangerous pasttime.  Check out these data visualizations of Kinshasa’s population and flight patterns.

Congolese elections:  Here’s a detailed overview of the political landscape in the DRC in the runup to the Dec. 30 election.  Human Rights Watch and Christoph Vogel have written about widespread human rights abuses during polling. Election monitors organized by the Catholic Church have announced that opposition candidate Martin Fayulu gained a majority of votes.  The government complained that the Church shouldn’t have announced their results before the official results, widely expected to favor the president’s preferred candidate Emmanuel Shadary, were in.  Laura Seay and Jason Stearns have both shared informed speculation about how the situation will evolve on Twitter.

Map listing uprisings against colonization across AfricaMap interlude: this is a remarkable map of selected anti-colonial uprisings from Paperless History

East Africa:  Kenyans are speaking up about extrajudicial killings by the police.  In your unusual political dispute for the day, Kenyan salt companies are complaining after the water regulator said they should have paid for the use of sea water in their factories.   Here are some good overviews of the last year in politics in Kenya and Tanzania.  Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have accused UNHCR of demanding bribes before they can be listed for resettlement elsewhere.  What can the popular uprisings of 1964 and 1985 tell us about Sudan’s current protests?  The Saudi-backed coalition in Yemen is hiring teenage soldiers from Darfur to fight on the front lines.  Eritrea’s secretive president rarely tells his ministers anything about policy before it’s implemented.  This is why cycling is so surprisingly popular in Eritrea.

Southern Africa:  This was an insightful post about the politics of cholera control in Zambia.  In Mozambique, pregnant students at secondary schools can now attend classes during the day instead of being forced to attend night classes “where they cannot be seen.”  Madagascar’s prisons sound really horrifying.  As the tobacco market shrinks, farmers in Malawi are considering switching to marijuana instead.  Angola now has an app for delivering live goats to your door.

Politics + economics: Apolitical is curating stories of young people’s experiences in the civil service across Africa.  Don’t miss this new book about the rich histories of medieval trade in Africa.  African activists are taking on climate change.  Here’s why medium-scale farms have quietly been on the rise across Africa.

Research + conferences: The National Academic Digital Repository of Ethiopia is a making all research from Ethiopian universities available online.  African physicists should apply to this Fields Institute postdoc by January 31.  Apply to the East Africa Social Science Translation Collaborative at Berkeley by March 1.  Read about why conferences on Africa should be held in Africa.  Nigerian magazine The Republic is soliciting essays about the experience of conducting research in Africa.

The Kan festival requests artwork related to Pan Africanism. No fee required. Submit to kanfestival dot com by Jan 15Calling all African artists!  (Via KAN Festival)

Art + innovation: The Nigerian publisher Kachifo has a call for manuscripts open till March 31.  Check out five inspired inventions from African engineers.  Africa Science Week Kenya produced a lot of fascinating material, including the Faces of Kenyan Science and this book of interesting facts about Kenyan science.  African edutainment programs for kids are on the rise.  Here are the must-read books of 2018 by African authors.

Interesting academic articles for December 2018

I recently figured out that most journals have RSS feeds, which has shifted my strategy for learning about new articles from occasionally remembering to check journals for updates every few months to automatically getting new articles in Feedly.  It’s been great!  Here are some of the things that I’m looking forward to reading in political science and economics.

Peter Van der Windt, Macartan Humphreys, Lily Medina, Jeffrey F. Timmons, Maarten Voors. 2018. Citizen Attitudes Toward Traditional and State Authorities: Substitutes or Complements? Comparative Political Studies.

Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual’s support for another. We show that this quantity—a type of elasticity—cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model’s outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government.

Arthur Thomas Blouin and Sharun W. Mukand. 2018. “Erasing Ethnicity? Propaganda, Nation Building and Identity in Rwanda.Journal of Political Economy.

This paper examines whether propaganda broadcast over radio helped to change inter- ethnic attitudes in post-genocide Rwanda. We exploit variation in exposure to the gov- ernment’s radio propaganda due to the mountainous topography of Rwanda. Results of lab-in-the-field experiments show that individuals exposed to government propaganda have lower salience of ethnicity, increased inter-ethnic trust and show more willingness to interact face-to-face with members of another ethnic group. Our results suggest that the observed improvement in inter-ethnic behavior is not cosmetic, and reflects a deeper change in inter- ethnic attitudes. The findings provide some of the first quantitative evidence that the salience of ethnic identity can be manipulated by governments.

Viviana M.E. Perego. 2018. “Crop prices and the demand for titled land: Evidence from Uganda.Journal of Development Economics.

I investigate how agricultural prices affect demand for titled land, using panel data on Ugandan farmers, and a price index that weighs international crop prices by the structure of land use at the sub-county level. Higher prices increase farmers’ share of titled land. I also present evidence of a positive impact of prices on agricultural incomes. The effect of prices on land tenure is stronger when farmers have access to roads and markets, when they have undertaken investment on the land, and when households fear land grabbing.

Johannes Haushofer, Jeremy Shapiro, Charlotte Ringdal, and Xiao Yu Wang. 2018. “Income Changes and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya.” Working paper.

We use a randomized controlled trial to study the impact of unconditional cash transfers on intimate partner violence (IPV) in western Kenya. Cash transfers to women of on average USD 709 PPP led to a significant 0.25 SD increase in a female empowerment index, while transfers to men led to a non-significant increase of 0.09 SD, with no significant difference between these effects. Physical violence was significantly reduced regardless of whether transfers were sent to the woman (0.26 SD) or the man (0.18 SD). In contrast, sexual violence was reduced significantly after transfers to the woman (−0.22 SD), but not the man (−0.10 SD, not significant). Our theoretical framework suggests that physical violence is reduced after transfers to the wife because her tolerance for it decreases, and is reduced after transfers to the husband because he has a distaste for it. We observe a large and significant spillover effect of transfers on domestic violence: non-recipient women in treatment villages show a 0.19 SD increase in the female empowerment index, driven by a 0.16 SD reduction in physical violence. Together, these results suggest that poverty alleviation through unconditional cash transfers can decrease IPV both in recipient and neighboring households.

Marcel Fafchamps and Simon R. Quinn. 2018. “Networks and Manufacturing Firms in Africa: Results from a Randomized Field Experiment.” NBER working paper #21132.

We run a novel field experiment to link managers of African manufacturing firms. The experiment features exogenous link formation, exogenous seeding of information, and exogenous assignment to treatment and placebo. We study the impact of the experiment on firm business practices outside of the lab. We find that the experiment successfully created new variation in social networks. We find significant diffusion of business practices only in terms of VAT registration and having a bank current account. This diffusion is a combination of diffusion of innovation and simple imitation. At the time of our experiment, all three studied countries were undergoing large changes in their VAT legislation.

Margaret McConnell, Claire Watt Rothschild, Allison Ettenger, Faith Muigai, Jessica Cohen. 2018. “Free contraception and behavioural nudges in the postpartum period: evidence from a randomised control trial in Nairobi, Kenya.” BMJ Global Health.

Short birth intervals are a major risk factor for poor maternal and newborn outcomes. Utilisation of modern contraceptive methods during the postpartum period can reduce risky birth intervals but contraceptive coverage during this critical period remains low. We conducted a randomised controlled experiment to test whether vouchers for free contraception, provided with and without behavioural ‘nudges’, could increase modern contraceptive use in the postpartum period. 686 pregnant women attending antenatal care in two private maternity hospitals in Nairobi, Kenya, were enrolled in the study. The primary outcomes were the use of modern contraceptive methods at nearly 3 months and 6 months after expected delivery date (EDD). We tested the impact of a standard voucher that could be redeemed for free modern contraception, a deadline voucher that expired 2 months after delivery and both types of vouchers with and without a short message service (SMS) reminder, relative to a control group that received no voucher and no SMS reminder. By nearly 6 months after EDD, we find that the combination of the standard voucher with an SMS reminder increased the probability of reporting utilisation of a modern contraceptive method by 25 percentage points (pp) (95% CI 6 pp to 44 pp) compared with the control group. Estimated impacts in other treatment arms were not statistically significantly different from the control group.

Elizabeth R. Metteta. 2018. “Irrigation dams, water and infant mortality: Evidence from South Africa.Journal of Development Economics.

Irrigation dams enable farmers to harness substantial water resources. However, their use consumes finite water supplies and recycles agricultural water pollutants back into river systems. This paper examines the net effect of irrigation dams on infant mortality in South Africa. It relies on both fixed effects and instrumental variables approaches to counteract potential bias associated with non-random dam placement, with the latter approach predicting dam placement based on geographic features and policy changes. The analysis reveals that additional irrigation dams within South Africa’s former homeland districts after Apartheid increased infant mortality by 10–20 percent. I then discuss and evaluate possible channels. Dam-induced increases in agricultural activity could increase water pollution and reduce water availability, and I provide supporting evidence that both channels may contribute. These results suggest a potential trade-off between the health costs of agricultural water use and the economic benefits of increased agricultural production.

Ellora Derenoncourt. 2018. “Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration.” Job market paper.

The northern United States long served as a land of opportunity for black Americans, but today the region’s racial gap in intergenerational mobility rivals that of the South. I show that racial composition changes during the peak of the Great Migration (1940-1970) reduced upward mobility in northern cities in the long run, with the largest effects on black men. I identify urban black population increases during the Migration at the commuting zone level using a shift-share instrument, interacting pre-1940 black southern migrant location choices with predicted outmigration from southern counties. The Migration’s negative effects on children’s adult outcomes appear driven by neighborhood factors, not changes in the characteristics of the average child. As early as the 1960s, the Migration led to greater white enrollment in private schools, increased spending on policing, and higher crime and incarceration rates. I estimate that the overall change in childhood environment induced by the Great Migration explains 43% of the upward mobility gap between black and white men in the region today

Mobile money firms as fiscal intermediaries in Rwanda

A Rwandan man in a yellow vest holds a mobile phone.  Another man in a red shirt is standing next to him.  They're both under a yellow umbrella with the MTN mobile money logo on itImage via Umuseke

I’ve been thinking about the role that firms play in helping governments to collect taxes ever since Ken Opalo wrote about this a few months ago.  A recent example comes from Rwanda, where MTN mobile money agents are complaining about the company’s new policy of automatically withholding their income taxes, rather than expecting them to self-report their income to the Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA).  According to Global Press Journal, many agents weren’t aware that they needed to self-report their income, and have been caught off guard by these new deductions:

But others say both the end-of-year tax and the withholding tax are unreasonable, because the agents do not earn much to begin with. In July, Nshimiyimana made 80,000 francs ($91), he says. After the withholding tax was deducted, he took home 68,000 francs ($78). He says that many agents, himself included, make far less than what the RRA estimates that they earn in a day. Like any type of sales work, some days are good for business, and some days aren’t, he adds.

Sadiki Nambajimana says the 15-percent tax was deducted from his April earnings, and he later quit his job. “I’m married with four kids, and I couldn’t afford my rent payment anymore,” he explains, adding that Rwanda’s cost of living is getting higher and higher.

Unusually, while the RRA is using MTN to facilitate its tax collection, it’s not basing its tax rates on the firm’s reports of the agents’ actual income.  According to the article, RRA decided to impose the 15% tax on the basis of what they assume the average income for mobile money agents to be — approximately 195,000 Rwandan francs per month — rather than their actual income.  The quoted example of someone earning only 80,000 per month should have put them in a lower tax bracket.  It’s definitely not optimal to have a tax system based on typical income for an employment category rather than actual earnings, as this leads to some individuals in that category being overtaxed and others undertaxed.

It’s also not quite clear how this new withholding scheme fits in with Rwanda’s overall income tax policy.  According to the article, people making between 2 – 4 million francs per month should pay 60,000 in annual income taxes, for a tax rate of 3% on income of 2 million.  That doesn’t line up with either the 15% monthly withholding through MTN, or with other reports of how the income tax brackets are structured.  This PwC report says that the tax rate should be 0% on monthly income up to 30,000 francs, and 20% on income from 30,001 – 100,000 francs.  Under that system, someone earning 80,000 francs should pay (80,000 – 50,000)*.2 = 10,000 francs per month, for an effective rate of 12.5%.  If any of my Rwandan readers want to talk me through this, I’m quite interested in understanding how the tax system actually works.